Modeling COVID-19 in Cape Verde Islands - An application of SIR model

Abstract

The rapid and surprised emergence of COVID-19, having infected three million and killed two hundred thousand people worldwide in less than five months, has led many experts to focus on simulating its propagation dynamics in order to have an estimated outlook for the not too distante future and so supporting the local and national governments in making decisions. In this paper, we apply the SIR model to simulating the propagation dynamics of COVID-19 on the Cape Verde Islands. It will be done firstly for Santiago and Boavista Islands, and then for Cape Verde in general. The choice of Santiago rests on the fact that it is the largest island, with more than 50% of the Population of the country, whereas Boavista was chosen because it is the island where the first case of COVID-19 in Cape Verde was diagnosed. Observations made after the date of the simulations were carried out corroborate our projections.