Impact of Solar Cycle 25 on GNSS Measurements: Analysis of Ionospheric Scintillation and Positioning Challenges †

Abstract

As the peak of solar cycle 25 approaches, increased ionospheric and scintillation activity is being observed, which is negatively impacting the quality of GNSS measurements and presenting challenges in the positioning domain. Ionospheric refraction and diffraction introduce delays and distortions to GNSS carrier phase measurements, leading to positioning errors that exceed the anticipated accuracies. These position errors can be a significant concern for users across the world who depend on precise GNSS positioning, such as in agriculture, offshore marine positioning and autonomous automotive positioning. To understand the direct impact on NovAtel receivers and its positioning engines, a comprehensive analysis was conducted. A closer look was taken at what happened in 2023–2024 by characterizing scintillation using the amplitude scintillation index (S4) values in an equatorial region. Additionally, the scintillation effect on the receivers was characterized through the analysis of C/N0, lock breaks, double differences and other indicators. With a substantial amount of data collected at 20° latitude, where high solar activity occurs due to the proximity to the equator, the positioning performance of Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) was analyzed.