Medial knee cartilage is unlikely to withstand a lifetime of running without positive adaptation: A theoretical biomechanical model of failure phenomena

Abstract

Runners on average do not have a high risk of developing knee osteoarthritis, even though running places very high loads on the knee joint. Here we used gait analysis, musculoskeletal modeling, and a discrete-element model of knee contact mechanics to estimate strains of the medial knee cartilage in walking and running in 22 young adults (age 23 ± 3 years). A phenomenological model of cartilage damage, repair, and adaptation in response to these strains then estimated the failure probability of the medial knee cartilage over an adult lifespan (age 23-83 years) for 6 km/day of walking vs. walking and running 3 km/day each. With no running, by age 55 the cumulative probability of medial knee cartilage failure averaged 36% without repair and 13% with repair, similar to reports on incidence of knee osteoarthritis in non-obese adults with no knee injuries, but the probability for running was very high without repair or adaptation (98%) and remained high after including repair (95%). Adaptation of the cartilage compressive modulus, cartilage thickness, and the tibiofemoral bone congruence in response to running (C1:15 standard deviations of their baseline values) was necessary for the failure probability of walking and running 3 km/day each to equal the failure probability of walking 6 km/day. The model results suggest two conclusions for further testing: (i) unlike previous findings on the load per unit distance, damage per unit distance on the medial knee cartilage is greater in running vs. walking, refuting the "cumulative load"hypothesis for long-term joint health; (ii) medial knee cartilage is unlikely to withstand a lifetime of mechanical loading from running without a natural adaptation process, supporting the "cartilage conditioning"hypothesis for long-term joint health.