Economic vulnerability and regional implications of a low carbon emissions future

Abstract

Climate change, as well as associated mitigation efforts, will substantially disrupt some economies. Seemingly inevitable market and policy changes will push economies to transition away from reliance on industries with higher carbon emissions and bring transient economic impacts, especially in regions that are currently heavily reliant on such industries. This situation is not unusual in a global context. To underpin better-informed decisions that enable a smoother economic transition to a low-emissions future, we developed a ‘latent economic vulnerability to emissions reduction’ (LEVER) index, which maps and explores regions that are more likely to be economically impacted from climate change mitigation. Thus, this paper provides an analysis and discussion of the potential regional implications of a future low-emissions economy, with the analysis contextualised for the state of Queensland, Australia. Given this case study, the economic impacts and future of coal-fired power stations, coal mining and renewable energy are discussed. The LEVER index weighs the risk of high carbon economic exposure against the variability in carbon economic resilience from employment in low-emission sectors across local economies. We find that between 3 and 6 per cent of Queensland regions are assessed as having a very high latent economic vulnerability to increased decarbonisation of industrial activities. To promote a smoother transition, these regions will require targeted investments and strategies to enable their transition towards lower carbon-intensive systems, while maximising economic and social outcomes.