Rising forest exposure and fire severity from climate warming amplify tree cover losses from wildfire in California

Abstract

Warmer temperatures and severe drought are driving increases in wildfire activity in the western United States, threatening forest ecosystems. However, identifying the influence of fire severity on tree cover loss (TCL) is challenging using commonly used categorical metrics. In this study, we quantify regional trends in wildfire-driven TCL as the product of annual burned area, average forest exposure (pre-fire tree cover), and average fire severity (relative loss of tree cover). We quantified these trends with Landsat-based 30 m resolution fire and tree cover datasets for California wildfires from 1986-2021. Rates of TCL rose faster than trends in burned area, with the magnitude of tree cover area loss per unit of area burned increasing by 70% from 0.20 ± 0.05 during 1986-1996 to 0.34 ± 0.10 during 2011-2021. Forest exposure (pre-fire tree cover) within fires increased by 41% from a decadal mean of 23.4% ± 5.5% (1986-1996) to 33.1% ± 7.8% (2011-2021). Increasing forest exposure is associated with a recent expansion of fires in dense northern forests. Concurrently, fire severity (relative TCL) rose by 30% from a decadal mean of 50.4% ± 7.2% during 1986-1996 to 65.6% ± 6.5% during 2011-2021. We developed and applied a simple conceptual framework to quantify the combined effect of wildfires affecting denser forests and burning more severely. The combined effect of these two processes contributed to nearly half (47%) of the TCL since 1986, highlighting that recent changes in burned areas alone cannot explain observed tree cover trends. Linear regression analysis revealed that warmer summers and drier winters were significant drivers of increasing forest exposure, fire severity, and burned area (R2 from 0.54 to 0.80, p ⩽ 0.001), particularly in the northern forests. Climate extremes had a disproportionate impact on dense forests that were once more resistant to wildfire but now face risks from a shifting wildfire regime.