Verification of nearest-neighbours interpretations in avalanche forecasting

Abstract

This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distribution-oriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented. © International Glaciological Society.