Mercantilism 2.0: American and Chinese mass public opinions toward trade balances

Abstract

International power competition between the US and China is intensifying as the deterioration of international trade cooperation is ongoing. Especially surrounding the US-China trade war, the bilateral trade imbalance has been politicized. I argue that power concerns shape mass public views of trade balances as deficits are seen to limit national power. To gain a better understanding of trade imbalance views, I conduct a set of original survey experiments in China and the US (n = 4181). I find that citizens from both countries view trade deficits more negatively than surpluses and that particularly deficits with political competitors are rejected. US respondents who believe that the US will be overtaken by China have more negative views of the bilateral deficit. My findings thus highlight why the trade imbalance is a key point of contention in US-Sino relations. In this context of power gap changes between the US and China, seemingly passé mercantilist ideas are likely to be resuscitated again.