Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms

Abstract

Accurate estimates of hail risk to exposed assets, such as crops, infrastructure, and vehicles, are required for both insurance pricing and preventive measures. Here we present an event catalog to describe the hail hazard in South Africa guided by 14 years of geostationary satellite observations of convective storms. Overshooting cloud tops have been detected, grouped, and tracked to describe the spatiotemporal extent of potential hail events. It is found that hail events concentrate mainly in the southeast of the country, along the Highveld, and around the eastern slopes. Events are most frequent from mid-November through February and peak in the afternoon, between 13:00 and 17:00g€¯UTC. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event properties yields an event catalog spanning 25g€¯000 years, aiming to estimate, in combination with vulnerability and exposure data, hail risk for return periods of 200 years.