Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Abstract

Aims Prediction of adverse events in mid-term follow-up after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is challenging. We sought to develop and validate a machine learning model for prediction of 1-year all-cause mortality in patients who underwent TAVI and were discharged following the index procedure. Methods and The model was developed on data of patients who underwent TAVI at a high-volume centre between January 2013 results and March 2019. Machine learning by extreme gradient boosting was trained and tested with repeated 10-fold hold-out testing using 34 pre- and 25 peri-procedural clinical variables. External validation was performed on unseen data from two other independent high-volume TAVI centres. Six hundred four patients (43% men, 81 ± 5 years old, EuroSCORE II 4.8 [3.0–6.3]%) in the derivation and 823 patients (46% men, 82 ± 5 years old, EuroSCORE II 4.7 [2.9–6.0]%) in the validation cohort underwent TAVI and were discharged home following the index procedure. Over the 12 months of follow-up, 68 (11%) and 95 (12%) subjects died in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In external validation, the machine learning model had an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.82 (0.78–0.87) for prediction of 1-year all-cause mortality following hospital discharge after TAVI, which was superior to pre- and peri-procedural clinical variables including age 0.52 (0.46–0.59) and the EuroSCORE II 0.57 (0.51–0.64), P < 0.001 for a difference. Conclusion Machine learning based on readily available clinical data allows accurate prediction of 1-year all-cause mortality following a successful TAVI.