Implications of a percolation model for earthquake 'nucleation'

Abstract

A percolation model is applied to the explanation of some of the qualitative and quantitative aspects associated with the recent observations of earthquake 'nucleation'. An additional assumption is introduced that nucleation starts at the critical point of percolation. The model explains the order of magnitude of the seismic moment release during the nucleation, the dependence of the seismic moment of the main shock on the duration of the nucleation process, and the observation that the fraction of the moment release during the nucleation has no systematic variation with the size of the main shock. The model also suggests that the source time function of the nucleation phase may be complex, and also that not all earthquakes are accompanied by a nucleation process, which is supported by observational results. By assuming that there exists a scale invariance associated with the criticality, a Widom scaling model is proposed to describe the electromagnetic emission during earthquake rupture.