A "sufficient" condition combination for rapid intensifications of tropical cyclones

Abstract

Rapid Intensifications (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provide major error sources in the challenging task of TC intensity forecasting. There are many factors that affect the RI processes of TCs, and identifying the combination of conditions most favorable to RI development is very time consuming when using traditional statistical data analysis methods. Data mining techniques are implemented to the data for SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme), an operational hurricane intensity forecasting model, to identify the "optimal" RI condition combinations when the number of affecting factors is given. One such combination (high latitude, low longitude, the TC being in an intensification phase, an initial intensity far away from the maximum potential intensity, high steering layer value, and low relative eddy flux convergence) gives such a high RI probability that the combination can be considered as a sufficient condition for RI, which almost guarantees that an RI will take place. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.