Strategy in the New Missile Age

Abstract

Technological improvements have placed the world on the verge of a new missile age in which precision intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) armed with conventional warheads will become useful and cost-effective weapons against many targets. Among great powers, this development will eliminate the sanctuary from conventional attack that distance from an enemy has historically provided. Using Monte Carlo simulations of conventional ICBM raids on bomber bases in the continental United States, I illustrate the damage these weapons could inflict on US power-projection capabilities and identify cost-exchange ratios that substantially favor the attacker. While these weapons will have limited effectiveness in nuclear counterforce, they will shift the conventional offense-defense balance in favor of offensive missile tactics, with important operational and strategic implications, including heightening the importance of the reconnaissance competition between hiders and finders, more complicated conventional-nuclear interactions, and potentially undermining the military foundations of US hegemony.