The changing rainfall pattern and its implication for flood frequency in Makurdi, Northern Nigeria

Abstract

The study deals with analysis of recent changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall and their implication for flood frequency in Makurdi. Data on extreme daily rainfall, evapotranspiration and flood occurrences were collected for analysis. The annual rainfall was analysed for trends using spearman rank correlation coefficient, annual rainfall variability analysed using standardized rainfall anomaly index while recurrence intervals were analysed using Gumbell Extreme probability theory. The results of the analysis show among other things that there was a remarkable continuous downward trend in annual rainfall amounts; that the period between 1996 and 2001 witnessed the highest frequencies of extreme rainfall events and flood frequencies; that major floods were associated with high recurrence intervals, and that the seasonality of flooding in Makurdi occurs between May and October. @JASEM Increasing flood risk is now being recognized as the most important sectoral threat from climate change in most parts of the world. This has prompted public debate on the apparent increased frequency of extreme, and in particular, on perceived increases in rainfall intensities (Dyson, 2000). Several studies have adduced extreme rainfall to be the major cause of flood worldwide. Such studies includes Gobo