Selection of optimal portfolios of interdependent real options

Abstract

This paper presents a new method for selection of optimal options portfolios. The problem of defining optimal portfolios of real options is formulated as integer programming. The algorithm of generating an optimal portfolio of real options is also presented. The incremental benefit of portfolio of real options is valued using Monte Carlo simulation and modeling the prices and demand as Geometric Brownian Motion. The presented method allows to select optimal portfolios of real options with consideration of statistical and qualitative dependences of options. The results show that real options can generate a significant increase in the net present value (NPV).