Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models

Abstract

The paper pzrovides a short-run estimation of international tourism demand focusing on the case of F.Y.R. Macedonia. For this purpose, the Box–Jenkins methodology is applied and several alternative specifications are tested in the modelling of original time series and international tourist arrivals recorded in the period 1956–2013. Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the research identifies the model of A.R.I.M.A.(1,1,1) as most suitable for forecasting. According to the research findings, a 13.9% increase in international tourist arrivals is expected by 2018. The forecasted values of the chosen model can assist in mitigating any potential negative impacts, as well as in the preparation of a tourism development plan for the country.