Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans

Abstract

Currently, Sweden has the largest share of renewable fuels for transport in the EU. The ambition of the Swedish Government for 2030 is for a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels. This paper assesses the potential future contribution of domestically produced biofuels for transport in Sweden to 2030, based on a mapping of the prospects from the actual and potential Swedish biofuel producers. There are plans for cellulose-based ethanol, methanol, DME (dimethyl ether), methane, and the biodiesel option HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil). Continued domestic production of biofuels at current levels and the realization of all the ongoing mapped plans for additional biofuels production result in potential domestic biofuels production of 18 TWhfuel in 2023. When assuming a continued expansion of biofuels production capacity, the potential domestic biofuels production reaches about 26 TWhfuel in 2030. If the realization of the mapped biofuels plans is delayed by 5 years and the pace of continued implementation of additional biofuel capacity is also reduced, the potential domestic biofuels production is reduced to about 8 TWhfuel and 20 TWhfuel biofuels in 2020 and 2030, respectively. These two scenarios correspond to a share of biofuels of the total future energy demand for road transport in Sweden at about 10-30% in 2020 and 26-79% in 2030, depending on which official energy demand scenario is used. The actual contribution of biofuels for road transport will depend on, e.g., policies, the global development for fossil fuels and biofuels, the competition for biomass and biofuels, and future energy demand in the road transport sector.