Assessment of Future Rainfall Quantile Changes in South Korea Based on a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

Abstract

Climate change presents considerable challenges to hydrological stability by modifying precipitation patterns and exacerbating the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. This research evaluates the prospective alterations in rainfall quantiles in South Korea by employing a multi-model ensemble (MME) derived from 23 Global Climate Models (GCMs) associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Historical rainfall data from simulations (1985–2014) and future projections (2015–2044, 2043–2072, and 2071–2100) were analyzed across a total of 615 sites. Statistical Quantile Mapping (SQM) bias correction significantly enhanced the accuracy of projections (RMSE reduction of 63.0–85.3%, Pbias reduction of 93.6%, and R2 increase of 0.73). An uncertainty analysis revealed model uncertainty to be the dominant factor (approximately 71.87–70.49%) in the near- to mid-term periods, and scenario uncertainty increased notably (up to 5.94%) by the end of the century. The results indicate substantial temporal and spatial changes, notably including increased precipitation in central inland and eastern coastal regions, with peak monthly increases exceeding 40 mm under high-emission scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the 100-year rainfall quantile is projected to increase by over 40% across significant portions of the country, emphasizing growing challenges for water resource management and infrastructure planning. These findings provide critical insights for water resource management, disaster mitigation, and climate adaptation strategies in South Korea.