Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Buah Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode Single Moving Average

Abstract

Palm oil is one of the largest agricultural products in Indonesia and has a high economic value and can improve the welfare of oil palm farmers. The amount of oil palm fruit production is not always stable or increasing, but increases up and down which is influenced by many factors. This study aims to estimate the average amount of oil palm fruit production every year and prepare anticipatory steps in the event of a decrease in oil palm fruit production. The image processed in this study was the production of palm fruit in a few years which was generated from the results of oil palm plantations. Furthermore, data is processed using the Single Moving Avarage method. This method is a method of forecasting or predictions using a number of actual data to generate predictive values ​​in the future. The results of testing on the single moving average method can be seen forecasts of oil palm fruit production in 2021 using Moving Averge 3 of 200.749 tons with Mean Absolute Deviation 19.604, Mean Squared Error  456.963.281  and Mean Absolute Percent Error 10,0%. Moving Averge 4 was  206.771 tons with the Mean Absolute Deviation  27.333, Mean Squared Error  752.202.579 and Mean Absolute Percent Error 14,2%. Moving Averge 5 was  210.908 tons with Mean Absolute Deviation  26.890, Mean Squared Error  723.072.100 and Mean Absolute Percent Error 14.1%. The test results using the Single Moving Average method can be concluded that forecasting using Moving Average 3 can be used because the relative error level is smaller than Moving Average 4 and 5, with the value of the Mean Absolute Percent error of 10.0% and Mean Absolute Deviation 19.604.