Decision-Oriented Multi-Outcome Modeling for Anesthesia Patients

Abstract

Anesthesia drugs have impact on multiple outcomes of an anesthesia patient. Most typical outcomes include anesthesia depth, blood pressures, heart rates, etc. Traditional diagnosis and control in anesthesia focus on a one-drug-one-outcome scenario. This paper studies the problem of real-time modeling for monitoring, diagnosing, and predicting multiple outcomes of anesthesia patients. It is shown that consideration of multiple outcomes is necessary and beneficial for anesthesia managements. Due to limited real-time data, real-time modeling in multi-outcome modeling requires low-complexity model strucrtures. This paper introduces a method of decision-oriented modeling that significantly reduces the complexity of the problem. The method employs simplified and combined model functions in a Wiener structure to contain model complexity. The ideas of drug impact prediction and reachable sets are introduced for utility of the models in diagnosis, outcome prediction, and decision assistance. Clinical data are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the method.