Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013

Abstract

We tested the economic activity and stock exchange of Croatia as a new country of EU in order to investigate the ‘Black Swan effect’ from 2000 to 2013. The empirical findings obtained in application of OLS methodology and Chow breaking point test provide evidence and show that resignation of the Croatian ex Prime Minister lead country successfully to EU, but were also ‘The Black Swan’ event, being unpredictable and having huge impact on political and economic environment in Croatia obtained through CROBEX, Croatian stock exchange indices. Authors conclude that the resignation was connected to one of the first significant cases of corruption in Croatia which has got the negative impact on the economic development of the country in general, dealing at the same time with global recession.