Vibration prediction and analysis of strip rolling mill based on XGBoost and Bayesian optimization

Abstract

The stable operation of strip rolling mill is the key factor to ensure the stability of product quality. The design capability of existing domestic imported and self-developed strip rolling mills cannot be fully developed, and the frequent occurrence of mill vibration and operation instability problems seriously restrict the equipment capacity and the production of high-end strip products. The vibration prediction analysis method for hot strip mill based on eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian optimization (BO) is proposed. First, an XGBoost prediction model is developed based on a self-built data set to construct a complex functional relationship between process parameters and rolling mill vibration. Second, the important hyperparameters and parameters of XGBoost are optimized using Bayesian optimization algorithm to improve the prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and stability of the model. Third, a comprehensive comparison is made between the prediction model in this paper and other well-known machine learning benchmark models. Finally, the prediction results of the model are interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The proposed model outperforms existing models in terms of prediction accuracy, computational speed and stability. At the same time, the degree of influence of each feature on rolling mill vibration is also obtained.