Do policy packages that mitigate uncertainty over long-term policy benefits increase support for costly climate action?

Abstract

Citizens often oppose long-term policies that cause upfront costs while aiming to deliver uncertain, future benefits. Previous research has mainly focused on how reducing upfront policy costs increases public support. In contrast, this study examines the role of policy instruments that reduce uncertainty about future policy benefits. Particularly, it highlights the uncertainty that arises from weaknesses in the chosen policy solution and from a lack of knowledge and resources within public administrations to implement the policy. Using a conjoint experiment conducted in Switzerland and the UK (N = 2986), the study assesses whether policy instruments that address these uncertainties increase public support. The study focuses on certification standards for carbon removal, an emerging climate policy issue that involves significant trade-offs between cost and uncertainty over time. Our findings suggest that policy designs that reduce uncertainty about long-term policy benefits can help counteract the negative impact of high short-term costs on public support.