Climatic factors influencing New Zealand pasture resilience under scenarios of future climate change

Abstract

New Zealand’s intensively managed pastoral agricultural systems are vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on grazing livestock and pasture as the primary feed supply. Drawing from recent modelling results, annual pasture yields in New Zealand are projected to be robust to a changing climate due to more favourable growing conditions in winter and early spring and increased plant efficiencies from the CO2 fertilization effect. However, growth is also expected to become more variable and unpredictable, particularly in water-limited regions. A combination of short-term, incremental changes (already part of current practice) and longer-term strategic interventions will be necessary to maintain consistent feed supply under future climate change.