Modelos de explicación y componentes del voto en las elecciones autonómicas catalanas de 2015

Abstract

The aim of this article is to identify the components of the vote to the parties that obtained parliamentary representation in the last regional elections held in Catalonia on the 27th of September, 2015. To this purpose, we will use the technique of structural equation modelling (SEM) that allows us to observe the direct and indirect relationships between the explanatory variables and the voters' decision to vote for each party. Our approach is premised on the fact that these elections pivoted around an issue that has become one of the main explanatory factors of the vote, namely their position regarding the process of independence; and in this regard they have effectively been plebiscitary elections. Moreover, we will see that voters' behaviour is explained differently depending on whether voters have voted for parties or coalitions in favour or against independence.