A SYSTEM DYNAMICS-BASED SIMULATION MODEL FOR CROSS-BORDER LOGISTICS RISK TRANSMISSION

Abstract

Logistical risks are now significantly more acute due to epidemics, economic recession and local political turmoil. Cross-border logistics risks are particularly prevalent given the large number of participants and the long transport distances involved. This paper develops a system dynamics model to analyse the key factors of cross-border logistics risk. In previous studies, people usually consider the risk factors as many independent individuals. But actually, there is a causal relationship as well as conduction effects between risk factors. Therefore, this paper analyses the relationship between risk factors through qualitative analysis and establishes a system dynamics model to indicate the direction of risk transmission. The rate of risk transmission was analysed using quantitative methods. Finally, this paper conducts simulations using survey data of cross-border e-commerce enterprises in Chengdu, indicating that the industry currently has more prominent customs risks, process risks, and cooperation risks. For these more serious risks, this paper proposes corresponding prevention and control measures.