Climate variability and crop productivity in Himalayan ecosystem: A case study of Kullu district

Abstract

Himalayas are one of the most vulnerable natural ecosystems to climate change. Climate variability is affecting the temperature and rainfall patterns, ultimately influencing the crop production in the region. Therefore, present studies were aimed to investigate the temporal trends in annual mean minimum, maximum and diurnal temperature and rainfall in Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh, from 1971-2016 and its impact on productivity of major agricultural crops. Sen’s slope method was used to quantify the trends in climatic variables obtained through Mann Kendall Test. Standardized anomaly index for temperature and rainfall was also calculated in order to determine the variability in the climatic parameters. Relationship between climatic variables and productivity of agriculture crops was determined by correlation and regression analysis. The results for the above period showed an increase of 0.02 °C in mean minimum temperature during rabi and kharif season whereas mean maximum temperature and rainfall did not show any significant change. Standardized anomaly index of temperature depicted slight warming trend. Productivity of rice, maize, potato and wheat has increased over the time. The study brought out that climate variability is contributing to the change in productivity of barley, maize, rice, millets, wheat and potato by 26%, 24%, 16.7%, 11.9%, 10.9% and 6%, respectively; remaining variability can be explained by other influential factors such as improved seeds and better crop management practices.