TRIGGER-VECTOR MODEL OF INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS' BEHAVIOUR IN THE DOMESTICІ GOVERNMENT BORROWING MARKET

Abstract

The increasing expenditures on defence, social protection, and economic recovery in Ukraine amidst a growing state budget deficit necessitate additional funding through the development of the domestic government borrowing market and the engagement of individual investors' funds. These investors can be both individuals, including labour migrants, and legal entities, particularly representatives of small and medium enter-prises, both residents and non-residents. The article conducts impact modelling the impact of government bond issuance on the financial stability of the state, and methods to enhance the effectiveness of state financial policy in realizing the financial potential of individual investors. An analysis of macroeconomic indicators reveals that the available funds held by individuals and legal entities are not fully utilized within the state's financial system, which hampers macroeconomic stability and, consequently, affects Ukraine's defence capabil-ities. The paper substantiates the appropriateness of individual investors allocating their funds to domestic government bonds, particularly military bonds. The research aims to develop a trigger-vector model of individual investor behaviour in the domestic government borrowing market and to justify its use for attracting additional funds to finance victory and post-war economic recovery in Ukraine. This model is centred around an investment trigger that allows individual investors to make informed decisions based on an assessment of the advantages and risks associated with investing in military bonds. To evaluate the impact of quantitative and quali-tative factors on investment decisions, particularly in military bonds, the trigger model is supplemented with a vector component. The utilization of the trigger-vector model in practice can help in: • Assessing the actual state of the domestic government borrowing market against predictions. • Adjusting the strategy for the market's development. • Evaluating changes in the behaviour of individual investors. • Making necessary amendments to strategic and tactical objectives of state financial policy aimed at motivating individual investors to purchase domestic government bonds.