Impact of climate change on future stream flow in the Dakbla river basin

Abstract

A systematic ensemble high-resolution climate modelling study over Vietnam was performed and future hydrological changes over the small catchment of Dakbla, Central Highland region of Vietnam, were studied. Using the widely used regional climate model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), future climate change over the period 2091-2100 was ascertained. The results indicate that surface temperature over Dakbla could increase by nearly 3.5 WC, while rainfall increases of more than 40% is likely. The ensemble hydrological changes suggest that the stream flow over the peak and post-peak rainfall seasons could experience a strong increase, suggesting risks of flooding, with an overall average annual increase of stream flow by 40%. These results have implications for water resources, agriculture, biodiversity and economy, and serve as useful findings for policy makers. © IWA Publishing 2014.