Bifurcation analysis of a two infection SIR-SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity and disease enhancement

Abstract

In this paper we study a two infection SIR-SIR compartmental model, considering biological features described in dengue fever epidemiology. Due to a progressive loss of protective antibodies there is waning immunity in the first infection stage and disease enhancement or protection effects by the second infection stage. Bifurcation analysis reveals two codim-2 bifurcations as organizing centers. The unfolding of a cusp bifurcation describes the transition of the disease-free equilibrium into an endemic equilibrium by varying a parameter. These equilibria allow an analytical solution with explicit expressions which allow for a full geometrical interpretation of the occurring bifurcations related to stationary dynamics. A Bogdanov-Takens point is the starting point in the parameter space where oscillatory endemic dynamics occurs including a homoclinic connection. These findings bring additional insights on biological mechanisms able to generate rich and complicated dynamical behavior in simple epidemic models that are, so far, largely unexplored.