The threat of secular stagnation

Abstract

Advanced countries are losing their predominant position in the world economy. With the longtime productivity slowdown and the present long recession, a question arises about the threat of secular stagnation of the advanced world. In searching for the roots of this threat, leading world economistst accentuate either the demand side, or the supply side of the economy. In this respect, the authors add globalization as another important factor. Globalization has resulted in long-term global and internal imbalances, and caused deep problems in the advanced countries - deindustrialization, unemployment, growing dependence on the social safety net, and a permanent increase of government intrusion into the economy. After the 2008 crisis, fiscal and monetary policy concentrates on short-term support of economic recovery, leaving aside the deeper long-term deficiencies. With multiple negative trends acting in the same direction, the threat of secular stagnation should not be overlooked.