Does Transit-Oriented Gentrification Increase Driving?

Abstract

Do transit-oriented development (TOD) programs cause people to drive more by displacing poorer households from transit-rich neighborhoods? We analyzed the California Household Travel Survey and the Nationwide Household Travel Survey along with selected Census data and found that higher income households reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) more when living in TODs than do poorer households. Results from controlled analysis were similar. In addition, gentrifying neighborhoods near rail stations in California have usually become more densely populated in the last two decades. Thus, in many cases, the likely net effect of gentrification has been regional reductions in VMT. But gentrification-induced displacement without densification will likely increase VMT.