Trends in international PISA scores over time: Which countries are actually improving?

Abstract

Many countries attempt to increase their Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) rankings and scores over time. However, despite providing a more accurate assessment of the achievement-based improvements across countries, few studies have systematically examined growth in PISA scores over multiple assessments. Using data from the 2006, the 2009, and the 2012 PISA, we analyzed which countries experienced significant increases in their country-level average PISA scores between 2006 and 2012. To facilitate improved policy decisions, we also examined what country-level conditions were associated with such increases. Contrary to expectations, we found that few countries significantly increased their PISA scores over time. Countries that did experience meaningful improvements in PISA scores were more likely to have had lower PISA scores in 2006 and experienced country-level foundational advancements more recently, such as advancing to a more democratic form of government and/or a higher income classification.