A 10-year mono-center study on patients with burns ≥70% TBSA: prediction model construction and multicenter validation - retrospective cohort

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Burn injuries with ≥70% total body surface area (TBSA) are especially acute and life-threatening, leading to severe complications and terrible prognosis, while a powerful model for the prediction of overall survival (OS) is lacking. The objective of this study is to identify prognostic factors for the OS of patients with burn injury ≥70% TBSA and construct and validate a feasible predictive model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients diagnosed with burns ≥70% TBSA admitted and treated between 2010 and 2020 in our hospital were included. A cohort of the patients from the Kunshan explosion were assigned as the validation set. The χ2 test and K-M survival analysis were conducted to identify potential predictors for OS. Then, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the independent factors. Afterward, we constructed a nomogram to predict OS probability. Finally, the Kunshan cohort was applied as an external validation set. RESULTS: Sex, the percentage of third-degree and fourth-degree burns as well as organ dysfunction were identified as significant independent factors. A nomogram only based on the factors of the individuals was built and evidenced to have promising predictive accuracy, accordance, and discrimination by both internal and external validation. CONCLUSIONS: This study recognized significant influencing factors for the OS of patients with burns ≥70% TBSA. Furthermore, our nomogram proved to be an effective tool for doctors to quickly evaluate patients' outcomes and make appropriate clinical decisions at an early stage of treatment.