Crop Yield Prediction Using Deep Reinforcement Learning Model for Sustainable Agrarian Applications

Abstract

Predicting crop yield based on the environmental, soil, water and crop parameters has been a potential research topic. Deep-learning-based models are broadly used to extract significant crop features for prediction. Though these methods could resolve the yield prediction problem there exist the following inadequacies: Unable to create a direct non-linear or linear mapping between the raw data and crop yield values; and the performance of those models highly relies on the quality of the extracted features. Deep reinforcement learning provides direction and motivation for the aforementioned shortcomings. Combining the intelligence of reinforcement learning and deep learning, deep reinforcement learning builds a complete crop yield prediction framework that can map the raw data to the crop prediction values. The proposed work constructs a Deep Recurrent Q-Network model which is a Recurrent Neural Network deep learning algorithm over the Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithm to forecast the crop yield. The sequentially stacked layers of Recurrent Neural network is fed by the data parameters. The Q-learning network constructs a crop yield prediction environment based on the input parameters. A linear layer maps the Recurrent Neural Network output values to the Q-values. The reinforcement learning agent incorporates a combination of parametric features with the threshold that assist in predicting crop yield. Finally, the agent receives an aggregate score for the actions performed by minimizing the error and maximizing the forecast accuracy. The proposed model efficiently predicts the crop yield outperforming existing models by preserving the original data distribution with an accuracy of 93.7%.