Land conversion at the protected area's edge

Abstract

Protected areas are a common strategy to conserve biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services. Through land market dynamics, however, protected area establishment can induce effects inimical to conservation goals. We examined the factors explaining land conversion within 2 km buffers of protected areas in Michigan, United States. We employed multilevel logistic models, with and without autocovariates, utilizing a multimodel inference paradigm. The most parsimonious models indicated that parcels with more developed, forested, and protected land in their vicinity, with well-drained soils, at lower elevations, nearer roads and urban areas, in areas of greater population, and originally in agriculture are more likely to be developed. There is weak support for attributes of protected areas such as size, access, ownership, and protection mechanism affecting nearby land conversion. Our results stress the importance of a well-designed system of protected areas and broad evaluations of the impacts of existing and future threats. ©2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc..