Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency in Belt and Road Agriculture

Abstract

This paper will calculate the carbon emissions and their growth rates in 30 regions except Tibet and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. It will also outline 17 regions with strategic priorities along the Belt and Road: Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hainan and Chongqing. It will also calculate the carbon emissions share of major agricultural carbon sources. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the belt and road initiative, the SBM model and ML model are used to evaluate and analyze the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the belt and road initiative region from the static and dynamic perspectives respectively. The results show that: (1) the average carbon emission in the belt and road initiative region from 2014 to 2017 is 4.4396 million tons, which is lower than the national average of 5.0883 million tons; (2) animal husbandry and cultivation activities become the two major sources of carbon emission; (3) from DEA model, it can be seen that the belt and road initiative region accounts for 5 of the 8 regions with effective carbon emission in 2017, while Heilongjiang province has the largest range of arable land and total power of agricultural machinery to be adjusted among the regions with carbon emission efficiency of 0.75 to 1. (4) During 2014-2017, the average ML index in the belt and road initiative region is 1.042, which is greater than 1, of which the average tech index is 1.045 and the average effch idex is 0.998, indicating that the overall agricultural carbon emission efficiency is on the rise.