Dynamic analysis of SEIR model for Covid-19 spread in Medan

Abstract

In this study, a mathematical model was studied on the population of the spread of Covid-19 in Medan which the model use an epidemic mathematical model, SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered). Next, we determine the basic reproduction number R0 using the next generation matrix and the equilibrium point which is analyzed using the Routh Hurwitz criteria. The disease-free equilibrium point is said to be locally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and the endemic equilibrium point is said to be locally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. Numerical simulation of the model was carried out using real data on the number of Covid-19 cases in Medan and give insightful results to further explore the dynamics of the disease. Through the data obtained, the value of R0 > 1 indicates that Covid-19 at the time of the study was still contagious to other individuals. Furthermore, based on the simulation formed from the SEIR model with the given initial and parameters, it was found that the greater the contact rate or the transmission rate, the more spread the disease would be and the smaller the cure rate, the more the disease would spread.