Adaptive normative modelling: A case study in the public-transport domain

Abstract

Data analytics promises to detect behavioral patterns, which may be used to improve decision making. However, decisions need to motivated, and they are often motivated by models. In this paper we explore the interplay between data analytics and process modeling, specifically in normative settings. We look specifically at value nets, mathematical models of the flow of money and goods, as used in accounting. Such models can be used to analyze the proportions of various flows, such as resources consumed and products produced. Such analyses can be used in the planning and control cycle, for forecasting, setting a budget, testing and possibly adjusting the budget. In other words, it can be used for adaptive normative modeling. We look in particular at a case study of a provider of public transport services for school children. The case shows that the use of value nets for analysis of proportions is (i) feasible, and (ii) useful, in the sense that it provides valuable new insights about the revenue model.