Geocomputation of Monte Carlo Simulation for hydrocarbon reserves estimation, case study offshore Kalimantan, Indonesia

Abstract

Uncertainty in geological and geophysical data affects the estimation of hydrocarbon reserves. To reduce the uncertainty, risk analysis can be performed, one of which by using Monte Carlo simulation. The purpose of this study is to estimate the volumetric reserves of petroleum using the Monte Carlo simulation. This research was conducted in the case of offshore in Kalimantan, Indonesia. There are two stages in this study, first analysing the reservoir zones to obtain rock property values used for estimation of reserves, second is calculating the probabilities by simulating random values based on their distribution and estimating hydrocarbon reserves based on these probability calculations. In addition, both stages need to be carried out as a basis for making effective decisions on the drill prospects.