Comparison of Different Power Generation Mixes for High Penetration of Renewables

Abstract

Growing environmental concerns have driven the installation of renewable systems. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), alongside the decreasing cost of photovoltaics (PVs), is compelling the power sector to accurately forecast the performance of energy plants to maximize plant profitability. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis and optimization of a hybrid power generation system for a remote community in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a 10 MW peak power demand. The goal is to achieve 90 percent of annual load coverage from renewable energy. This study introduces a novel comparison between three different configurations: (i) concentrated solar power (parabolic troughs + thermal energy storage + steam Rankine cycle); (ii) fully electric (PVs + wind + batteries); and (iii) an energy mix that combines both solutions. The research demonstrates that the hybrid mix achieves the lowest levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at 0.1364 USD/kWh through the use of advanced transient simulation and load-following control strategies. The single-technology solutions were found to be oversized, resulting in higher costs and overproduction. This paper also explores a reduction in the economic scenario and provides insights into cost-effective renewable systems for isolated communities. The new minimum cost of 0.1153 USD/kWh underscores the importance of integrating CSP and PV technologies to meet the very stringent conditions of high renewable penetration and improved grid stability.