Impact of Housing Supply, Income Levels and Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices in Nigeria

Abstract

Housing affordability remains a critical challenge in Nigeria, driven by rapid urbanization, inadequate housing supply, economic disparities, and fluctuating macroeconomic conditions. This study investigates the impact of housing supply, income levels, and key macroeconomic factors, specifically inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth, on housing prices in Nigeria. Using a quantitative research design, secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the World Bank were analyzed over the period from 2013 to 2023. Statistical analyses, including trend analysis, correlation, multiple regression, and Granger causality tests, were conducted to determine the relationships between housing prices, housing supply, income levels, and macroeconomic indicators. Findings indicate that increased housing supply plays a stabilizing role in moderating housing prices, while rising income levels drive demand elevates prices. Inflation is identified as a key driver of housing costs, primarily due to escalating construction expenses, while interest rates show minimal impact on housing prices due to limited mortgage accessibility in Nigeria. The study among others recommends policies to increase the affordable housing supply, including incentives for developers and streamlined regulatory processes. Income support measures and affordable mortgage options tailored for low- and middle-income earners are also recommended to improve housing accessibility. To mitigate the impact of inflation, strategies to stabilize construction costs are proposed, along with broader monetary policies to promote economic stability. This study underscores the need for an integrated housing policy framework in Nigeria that addresses supply expansion, income growth, and inflation control to enhance housing affordability in the nation’s urban centers.