Packaging Waste Recycling Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: Trend Analysis of the EU-27 Reference Path

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of packaging waste recycling rates in four Central and Eastern European EU Member States—Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania—in comparison with the EU-27 average over the period 2014–2023. The analysis is based on Eurostat data on total packaging waste recycling rates (percentage of generated waste recycled) and employs a linear trend model estimated for the EU-27, which is used as a reference trajectory. This reference trend does not aim to predict future recycling rates or to validate absolute national performance levels; rather, it serves as an analytical benchmark for assessing the relative convergence or divergence of national trajectories over time. Descriptive statistics and linear regression techniques are applied to characterize long-term tendencies and year-to-year dynamics, including potential disruptions during the 2020–2021 period. The results indicate that the EU-27 recycling rate remains high and relatively stable (average 78.7%), albeit with a slight downward trend (−0.44%) across the analyzed interval. Poland and Bulgaria record overall improvements relative to their initial levels, while Hungary—and particularly Romania—exhibit declining trends and persistent negative gaps compared to the EU-27 benchmark. Poland stands out by surpassing the EU-27 average after 2019, reporting exceptionally high recycling rates in several years, whereas Romania consistently records the largest deviation, with an average gap exceeding 20% in the later period. These findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in the implementation of EU packaging waste policies and highlight the need for targeted, country-specific interventions in Member States facing structural constraints in recycling capacity and collection systems.