Response of larch species to climate changes

Abstract

Global warming has changed the distributions of forests of northeastern China. Larix are very important species in this area. Predicting the potential distributions of Larix species and their responses to climate change would attract more and more attention.This paper predicted the potential distributions of three Larix species based on 'climatic-topographic' relationships by logistic regression. The results showed that L. gmelinii is predicted to retreat northwest-ward by 220 km by 2050 and by 270 km more by 2100; L. olgensis var. changpaiensis is predicted to retreat northwestward by 200 km by 2050 and by 190 to 300 km more by 2100; L. principis-rupprechtii is predicted to retreat northeastward by 200 km by 2050 km by 250 to 400 km more by 2100. This indicated that L. gmelinii could have its optimum latitude moved into Russia, L. olgensis var. changpaiensis could move to the small Xing'an Mountains and L. principis-rupprechtii would move to the middle part of the Great Xing'an Mountains.