Forecast and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic based on improved SEIR model

Abstract

Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), China has taken effective measures to control the spread of the epidemic. By the end of April 2020, the global situation of coVID-19 (COVID-19) prevention and control is still very serious. In this paper, a mathematical model was established to predict the future trend of coVID-19 by studying its transmission routes, propagation speed, spatial range and dynamic mechanism. This article first analyzes the changes in the transmission route in chronological order. After understanding the transmission route of COVID-19, we started to study the transmission speed and used MATLAB to fit the data we found. Secondly, consider the spatial scope of the spread of new coronary pneumonia, and use FineBI software to draw static maps to reflect global medical record data. Finally, we further consider the immigration and emigration of the population, and use Euler's numerical method to solve the established partial differential equation model to study the dynamic mechanism of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19). Through the above analysis, a modified SEIR transmission dynamics model considering the virus transmission ability of patients in the incubation period and the effect of tracking isolation intervention measures on the epidemic was established. At the end of this article, based on actual data, the revised SEIR model is used to predict the future trend of COVID-19.