Colombia’s transition to peace is enhancing coca-driven deforestation

Abstract

Forests cover 70% of the Colombian territory, which includes part of the Amazon. Recent studies have examined how the country’s tree cover dynamics are affected by coca cultivation and its internal armed conflict. In light of Colombia’s recent peace agreement, this study examines whether the impact of coca cultivation on forest loss is conditional on the conflict (i.e. whether the impact varies across different levels of conflict intensity). This conditional association is supported by a state-of-the-art spatial panel data analysis, covering the entire territory throughout 2006–2019. As the conflict becomes less intense, each hectare of coca is associated with a larger extension of forest loss.