Rates of woody encroachment in African savannas reflect water constraints and fire disturbance

Abstract

Aim: The aims of this study were to (1) estimate current rates of woody encroachment across African savannas; (2) identify relationships between change in woody cover and potential drivers, including water constraints, fire frequency and livestock density. The found relationships led us to pursue a third goal: (3) use temporal dynamics in woody cover to estimate potential woody cover. Location: Sub-Saharan African savannas. Methods: The study used very high spatial resolution satellite imagery at sites with overlapping older (2002–2006) and newer (2011–2016) imagery to estimate change in woody cover. We sampled 596 sites in 38 separate areas across African savannas. Areas with high anthropogenic impact were avoided in order to more clearly identify the influence of environmental factors. Relationships between woody cover change and potential drivers were identified using linear regression and simultaneous autoregression, where the latter accounts for spatial autocorrelation. Results: The mean annual change in woody cover across our study areas was 0.25% per year. Although we cannot explain the general trend of encroachment based on our data, we found that change rates were positively correlated with the difference between potential woody cover and actual woody cover (a proxy for water availability; p