The Impact of Unilateral Trade Tariffs on Indonesia's Export Performance and Policy Responses: A Quantitative Study of the Effects of United States Tariffs

Abstract

The imposition of unilateral tariffs by the United States on various imported products, including those from Indonesia, has significant implications for international trade performance. This protectionist policy reflects the global trend toward neo-protectionism, which is often associated with increasing domestic political pressure and global economic uncertainty. This study aims to analyze the impact of unilateral US tariffs on Indonesian exports by examining changes in export volume, commodity prices, and competitive position in the US market. The methodology used includes quantitative descriptive analysis based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, and the World Trade Organization (WTO), as well as strengthening international trade theory such as the gravity model and comparative advantage theory. The analysis shows that the imposition of US tariffs has led to a decline in exports in certain sectors, particularly manufacturing-based products and low-value-added commodities, while simultaneously encouraging export market diversification and strategies to strengthen the added value of domestic products. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive trade policies through economic diplomacy, expanding non-traditional market access, and utilizing free trade agreements (FTAs) as a mitigation strategy. The implications of this research contribute to the formulation of a more resilient Indonesian foreign trade policy against global protectionist shocks.