Short-Term Forecast of Bicycle Usage in Bike Sharing Systems: A Spatial-Temporal Memory Network

Abstract

Bike-sharing systems have made notable contributions to cities by providing green and sustainable mobility service to users. Over the years, many studies have been conducted to understand or anticipate the usage of these systems, with the hope to inform their future developments. One important task is to accurately predict usage patterns of the systems. Although many deep learning algorithms have been developed in recent years to support travel demand forecast, they have mainly been used to predict traffic volume or speed on roadways. Few studies have applied them to bike-sharing systems. Moreover, these studies usually focus on one single dataset or study area. The effectiveness and robustness of the prediction algorithms are not systematically evaluated. In this study, we propose a Spatial-Temporal Memory Network (STMN) to predict short-term usage of bicycles in bike-sharing systems. The framework employs Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory models and a feature engineering technique to capture the spatial-temporal dependencies in historical data for the prediction task. Four testing sites are used to evaluate the model. These four sites include two station-based systems (Chicago and New York) and two dockless bike-sharing systems (Singapore and New Taipei City). By assessing STMN with several baseline models, we find that STMN achieves the best overall performance in all the four cities. The model also achieves superior performance in urban areas with varying levels of bicycle usage and during peak periods when demand is high. The findings suggest the reliability of STMN in predicting bicycle usage for different types of bike-sharing systems.