Validation of community models: 3. Tracing field lines in heliospheric models

Abstract

Forecasting hazardous gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) bursts at Earth requires accurately modeling field line connections between Earth and the locations of coronal or interplanetary shocks that accelerate the particles. We test the accuracy of field lines reconstructed using four different models of the ambient coronal and inner heliospheric magnetic field, through which these shocks must propagate, including the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/ENLIL model. Evaluating the WSA/ENLIL model performance is important since it is the most sophisticated model currently available to space weather forecasters which can model interplanetary coronal mass ejections and, when coupled with particle acceleration and transport models, will provide a complete model for gradual SEP bursts. Previous studies using a simpler Archimedean spiral approach above 2.5 solar radii have reported poor performance. We test the accuracy of the model field lines connecting Earth to the Sun at the onset times of 15 impulsive SEP bursts, comparing the foot points of these field lines with the locations of surface events believed to be responsible for the SEP bursts. We find the WSA/ENLIL model performance is no better than the simplest spiral model, and the principal source of error is the model's inability to reproduce sufficient low-latitude open flux. This may be due to the model's use of static synoptic magnetograms, which fail to account for transient activity in the low corona, during which reconnection events believed to initiate the SEP acceleration may contribute short-lived open flux at low latitudes. Time-dependent coronal models incorporating these transient events may be needed to significantly improve Earth/Sun field line forecasting.