Forecasting Number of Inbound Tourists in India Adopting ARIMA Model

Abstract

This study focuses on estimating the occurrence of inbound tourists in India using univariate time series econometrics, the ARIMA model in particular. The tourism industry plays a significant role in India's economy, making accurate forecasts essential for effective planning and decision-making. The ARIMA model is known for its ability to analyze time series data, making it an appropriate tool for predicting future tourist arrivals. Data from previous years of inbound tourist arrivals in India, including factors such as historical trends, seasonality, and economic conditions, is utilized form world bank open data. The ARIMA model will be employed to capture the patterns and correlations within the data, enabling the prediction of future tourist numbers accurately. By adopting this forecasting model, policymakers, tourism authorities, and industry stakeholders can make informed decisions regarding infrastructure development, resource allocation, marketing strategies, and policy formulations. This research aims to contribute to the tourism sector by providing reliable insights into the future trends of inbound tourism in India, facilitating sustainable growth and development in the industry.